GlobalChangeBiology - Revision history

⚠️Lponti: moved Case studies/GlobalChangeBiology to GlobalChangeBiology: Seems a more standard practice through the wiki.

2012-12-06T19:39:11Z

moved Case studies/GlobalChangeBiology to GlobalChangeBiology: Seems a more standard practice through the wiki.

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:39, 6 December 2012
(No difference)

⚠️Lponti: /* Light brown apple moth */

2012-11-28T21:59:52Z

Light brown apple moth

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:59, 28 November 2012
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	=== Light brown apple moth ===		=== Light brown apple moth ===

	Native to Australia, LBAM was first found in California in 2006 and has thereafter spread to coastal areas of the state causing no economic damage despite its broad host range. In 2007, however, a controversial program of aerial sprays was begun over urban and suburban areas to eradicate LBAM based on its predicted wide geographic range (including much of Arizona and California and the southern half of the US) and consequent economic losses estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The predictions of our mechanistic model differ markedly from those made by USDA using on a simple degree-day accumulation model, and show that the potential distribution of LBAM in California is, as observed, largely restricted to near coastal areas (Fig. 2). Our analysis of LBAM in California contributed to switch the LBAM eradication program to one of containment.		Native to Australia, LBAM was first found in California in 2006 and has thereafter spread to coastal areas of the state causing no economic damage despite its broad host range. In 2007, however, a controversial program of aerial sprays was begun over urban and suburban areas to eradicate LBAM based on its predicted wide geographic range (including much of Arizona and California and the southern half of the US) and consequent economic losses estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA; see [http://www.aphis.usda.gov/plant_health/plant_pest_info/lba_moth/downloads/lbameconomicanalysis.pdf Fowler et al. 2009]). The predictions of our mechanistic model differ markedly from those made by USDA using on a simple degree-day accumulation model, and show that the potential distribution of LBAM in California is, as observed, largely restricted to near coastal areas (Fig. 2). Our analysis of LBAM in California contributed to switch the LBAM eradication program to one of containment.

⚠️Lponti: /* Light brown apple moth */

2012-11-28T21:58:46Z

Light brown apple moth

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:58, 28 November 2012
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	[[Image:Lbam.png\|640px]]		[[Image:Lbam.png\|640px]]

	'''Fig. 2.''' Mapping of average simulated light brown apple moth populations (larval days during 1996–2005) in Arizona and California: (a) locations where the moth has been recovered in northcentral California (from Fowler et al. 2009) and (b) the simulated average distribution below 750 m.		'''Fig. 2.''' Mapping of average simulated light brown apple moth populations (larval days during 1996–2005) in Arizona and California: (a) locations where the moth has been recovered in northcentral California (from [http://www.aphis.usda.gov/plant_health/plant_pest_info/lba_moth/downloads/lbameconomicanalysis.pdf Fowler et al. 2009]) and (b) the simulated average distribution below 750 m.

	=== The GlobalChangeBiology project ===		=== The GlobalChangeBiology project ===

⚠️Lponti: /* Assessing the invasiveness of exotic species using ecosystem models and GRASS GIS */

2012-11-28T21:56:53Z

Assessing the invasiveness of exotic species using ecosystem models and GRASS GIS

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	Analytical tools that provide a synthesis of ecological data are increasingly needed to design and maintain sustainable agroecosystems increasingly disrupted by global change in the form of agro-technical inputs, invasive species, and climate change. A key issue at the interface between global change and biological systems (i.e., global change biology) is the increasing problem of invasive species, whose worldwide annual cost exceeds that of natural disasters (Ricciardi'' et al.'' 2011). A variety of climate matching models have been used to predict the potential distribution of invaders, but there have been few attempts to include biotic interactions in addition to abiotic drivers into such models. The [https://sites.google.com/site/globalchangebiology/ GlobalChangeBiology project] analyzed the potential distribution and relative abundance of invasive species of global relevance using weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models in a GRASS GIS context to provide a more quantitative and realistic approach for assessing the risks posed by biological invasions. The long-term goal of the project is to develop interdisciplinary tools for the analysis of ecological and agro-ecological problems that will increase in the face of global change. In this case study, two examples of invasive species analysis are given to illustrate capabilities of GRASS.		Analytical tools that provide a synthesis of ecological data are increasingly needed to design and maintain sustainable agroecosystems increasingly disrupted by global change in the form of agro-technical inputs, invasive species, and climate change. A key issue at the interface between global change and biological systems (i.e., global change biology) is the increasing problem of invasive species, whose worldwide annual cost exceeds that of natural disasters (Ricciardi'' et al.'' 2011). A variety of climate matching models have been used to predict the potential distribution of invaders, but there have been few attempts to include biotic interactions in addition to abiotic drivers into such models. The [https://sites.google.com/site/globalchangebiology/ GlobalChangeBiology project] analyzed the potential distribution and relative abundance of invasive species of global relevance using weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models in a GRASS GIS context to provide a more quantitative and realistic approach for assessing the risks posed by biological invasions. The long-term goal of the project is to develop interdisciplinary tools for the analysis of ecological and agro-ecological problems that will increase in the face of global change. In this case study, two examples of invasive species analysis are given to illustrate capabilities of GRASS.

	GRASS GIS was used in the GlobalChangeBiology project to map the potential geographic distribution and relative abundance (i.e., measures of invasiveness) of two invasive insect pests of global relevance: the Mediterranean fruit fly ''Ceratitis capitata'' (medfly; [http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10530-011-9937-6 Gutierrez & Ponti 2011], Open Access) and the light brown apple moth ''Epiphyas postvittana'' (LBAM; [http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10530-010-9725-8 Gutierrez'' et al.'' 2010], Open Access). Species invasiveness was projected using multitrophic weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models that also simulate host plant dynamics and hence plant-herbivore interactions. The GRASS-based GIS used in the project was initially developed by Luigi Ponti during his postdoctoral tenure at the University of California, Berkeley with the aim of replacing and improving existing functionality based on proprietary GIS software. Going the GRASS way proved extremely rewarding as it allowed developing a flexible and efficient geospatial tool that can be tuned to perform batch data analysis while at the same time producing publication-quality maps. In addition to mapping, GRASS allows further GIS (see Neteler'' et al.'' 2012) and statistical analysis to be implemented via the interface between GRASS and the free software environment for statistical computing and graphics R ([http://www.osgeo.org/files/journal/final_pdfs/OSGeo_vol1_GRASS-R.pdf Bivand 2007]).		GRASS GIS was used in the GlobalChangeBiology project to map the potential geographic distribution and relative abundance (i.e., measures of invasiveness) of two invasive insect pests of global relevance: the Mediterranean fruit fly ''Ceratitis capitata'' (medfly; [http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10530-011-9937-6 Gutierrez & Ponti 2011], Open Access) and the light brown apple moth ''Epiphyas postvittana'' (LBAM; [http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10530-010-9725-8 Gutierrez'' et al.'' 2010], Open Access). Species invasiveness was projected using multitrophic weather-driven physiologically-based demographic models that also simulate host plant dynamics and hence plant-herbivore interactions. The GRASS-based GIS used in the project was initially developed by Luigi Ponti during his postdoctoral tenure at the University of California, Berkeley with the aim of replacing and improving existing functionality based on proprietary GIS software. Going the GRASS way proved extremely rewarding as it allowed developing a flexible and efficient geospatial tool that can be tuned to perform batch data analysis while at the same time producing publication-quality maps. In addition to mapping, GRASS allows further GIS (see [http://gis.cri.fmach.it/uploads/neteler2012_grass_gis_proof.pdf Neteler'' et al.'' 2012]) and statistical analysis to be implemented via the interface between GRASS and the free software environment for statistical computing and graphics R ([http://www.osgeo.org/files/journal/final_pdfs/OSGeo_vol1_GRASS-R.pdf Bivand 2007]).

	=== Mediterranean fruit fly ===		=== Mediterranean fruit fly ===

⚠️Lponti: /* Light brown apple moth */

2012-11-27T22:59:16Z

Light brown apple moth

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:59, 27 November 2012
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	=== Light brown apple moth ===		=== Light brown apple moth ===

	Native to Australia, LBAM was first found in California in 2006 and has thereafter spread to coastal areas of the state causing no economic damage. In 2007, however, a controversial program of aerial sprays was begun over urban and suburban areas to eradicate LBAM based on its predicted wide geographic range (including much of Arizona and California and the southern half of the US) and consequent economic losses estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The predictions of our mechanistic model differ markedly from those made by USDA using on a simple degree-day accumulation model, and show that the potential distribution of LBAM in California is, as observed, largely restricted to near coastal areas (Fig. 2). Our analysis of LBAM in California contributed to switch the LBAM eradication program to one of containment.		Native to Australia, LBAM was first found in California in 2006 and has thereafter spread to coastal areas of the state causing no economic damage despite its broad host range. In 2007, however, a controversial program of aerial sprays was begun over urban and suburban areas to eradicate LBAM based on its predicted wide geographic range (including much of Arizona and California and the southern half of the US) and consequent economic losses estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The predictions of our mechanistic model differ markedly from those made by USDA using on a simple degree-day accumulation model, and show that the potential distribution of LBAM in California is, as observed, largely restricted to near coastal areas (Fig. 2). Our analysis of LBAM in California contributed to switch the LBAM eradication program to one of containment.

⚠️Lponti: /* Mediterranean fruit fly */

2012-11-27T22:56:53Z

Mediterranean fruit fly

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:56, 27 November 2012
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	=== Mediterranean fruit fly ===		=== Mediterranean fruit fly ===

	Medfly is of East African origins ~~and~~ was first detected in California in 1975, but persistent measurable populations of the pest have not been subsequently found. Yet a large-scale detection/eradication campaign has since been place in the absence of sound knowledge of the fly’s potential invasiveness and geographic distribution. Our analysis suggests that temperatures are unfavorable for medfly in much of California and hence questions the scientific basis for the ongoing eradication program (Fig. 1).		Medfly is a serious cosmopolitan pest of East African origins that was first detected in California in 1975, but persistent measurable populations of the pest have not been subsequently found. Yet a large-scale detection/eradication campaign has since been place in the absence of sound knowledge of the fly’s potential invasiveness and geographic distribution. Our analysis suggests that temperatures are unfavorable for medfly in much of California and hence questions the scientific basis for the ongoing eradication program (Fig. 1).

⚠️Lponti: /* The GlobalChangeBiology project */

2012-11-26T22:05:08Z

The GlobalChangeBiology project

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⚠️Lponti: /* The GlobalChangeBiology project */

2012-11-26T21:59:00Z

The GlobalChangeBiology project

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⚠️Lponti: /* The GlobalChangeBiology project */

2012-11-26T21:57:16Z

The GlobalChangeBiology project

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⚠️Lponti: /* The GlobalChangeBiology project */

2012-11-26T21:43:44Z

The GlobalChangeBiology project

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